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Statute (frozen): Class 1 homes ≥ $5M taxed 0.8–1.3% above threshold · Class 2 condos/co-ops ≥ $1M DOF value taxed 4–6.5% on full value · exempt if a primary residence of owner, family, or tenant

Your behavioral assumptions

Co-op sublet blockade rate
higher = more trapped owners forced to pay 75%

LLC / entity deferral + litigation
unresolved rules withhold this year's take 50%

Share of forced sales exiting the base
sold to an owner-occupier = gone; recycled = still taxed 40%

Luxury liquidity discount
externality, not revenue — price erosion on exits 15%

Realized revenue

$0M

Realization rate

Eroded (permanent)

$0M

Deferred (timing)

$0M

Where your scenario lands vs. official estimates

$287M

$500M

you

Fate of every gross tax dollar

absorb sale recycled (taxed) converted sale exited deferred

Est. luxury value repriced downward: $0M

Interactive model of NYC pied-a-terre tax revenue: the statutory rates are fixed, and sliders control contested behavioral assumptions to show the realized revenue each set of assumptions produces.